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美国人对中美贸易战的看法!--- 好笑可笑的美国人

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发表于 2018-4-15 11:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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中美贸易战的核心其实是推进人民币国际化,打击美元全球霸权。

美国人好像还没人能认识到这点,居然还在认为我们非要赚他们的美元不可。而现实是中国已经不需要(美联储印出来)美元了,而是希望用(中国人民银行印出的)人民币从全球市场购买产品、技术与服务!

时代变了,中国希望的已经不是中美顺差(赚美元纸张已经没用了),而是希望更多的逆差(用人民币换取海外的资源、产品、技术与服务)!




以下是转帖
http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-473615-1-1.html
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As trade dispute grows, China’s state media says Beijing should hit US so hard ‘it remembers the pain’

随着贸易争端的加剧,中国官方媒体称北京应该狠狠地打击美国,“让它记住痛苦”

Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily says White House has ‘completely lost its sense of reality’

中国《人民日报》称,白宫“完全失去了对现实的认知”。

China’s state media has rallied against the United States, warning its trade protectionism actions would end in defeat and that the only option now was to hit the US hard enough so it would “remember the pain”.

中国官方媒体对美国发出了抗议,警告称它的贸易保护主义行动将以失败告终,现在唯一的选择就是重击美国,让它“记住痛苦”。

“If the US says that it will pay any price, it must be firmly attacked,” Xinhua said on Saturday.

新华社周六表示:“如果美国说它将不惜任何代价,它必须受到坚决的打击”。

China warned on Friday it was ready with a “fierce counter strike” of fresh trade measures if Washington followed through on President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on an additional US$100 billion worth of Chinese goods.

中国上周五警告称,如果华盛顿方面继续执行唐纳德?特朗普总统做出的对价值1000亿美元的中国商品加征关税的威胁,中国将准备对这一新的贸易措施展开“猛烈的反击”。

US trade threats ‘raise risks for China’s industrial tech ambitions’

美国的贸易威胁让中国工业科技雄心的风险大增

On Wednesday, China imposed US$3 billion worth of tariffs on US fruits, nuts, wine and pork, just hours after the Trump administration proposed duties on 1,300 Chinese industrial, technology, transport and medical products.

周三,中国对美国水果、坚果、葡萄酒和猪肉征收了30亿美元的关税,而就在几小时前,特朗普政府提议对中国的1300种工业、技术、运输和医疗产品征收关税。

The rising trade tension between the world’s two largest economies follows a US finding that China was engaging in unfair trade practices in connection with intellectual property protection. China rejects the charge.

全球最大的两个经济体之间的贸易紧张加剧,此前美国发现,中国在知识产权保护方面进行着不公平的贸易行为。中国否认了这一指控。

‘It has dealt us a heavy blow’ – China’s exporters count the costs of a higher yuan as trade war kicks off

“这给我们带来了沉重的打击”——随着贸易战的开始,中国的出口商计算出人民币升值所带来的成本。

China’s media, which is strictly controlled by the government, has come out in defence of the country, painting it as a victim of a too aggressive United States bent on taking illegitimate unilateral action.

受到政府严格控制的中国媒体已经站出来为国家辩护,把它描绘成一个过于具有侵略性、一心要采取非法的单边行动的美国的受害者。

“The White House has completely lost its sense of reality!” said the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper in a Friday commentary, alleging the US is acting unilaterally and engaging in trade protectionism.

“白宫已经完全失去了对现实的认知!”《人民日报》在周五的一篇社论中说到,美国这么做是在单方面采取行动,这是一种贸易保护主义行径。

Meanwhile, the nationalist Global Times said in an editorial published late on Thursday that the “Chinese are aware that the only option now is to hit the US hard enough so that it will remember the pain.”

与此同时,民族主义的《环球时报》在周四晚些时候发表的一篇社论中说到:“中国人意识到,现在唯一的选择就是打击美国,让它记住痛苦。”

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评论:

[–]Timbershoe 393 points
The Whitehouse is clearly, demonstrably, fantastically unprepared for this.
Donald has surrounded himself with idiots, corruption and yes men. Literally his only business experience involves how to declare bankruptcy and dodge taxes.
China isn’t just laughing, they sense a real and validated reason to attack the US economy.
And our defence is a senile fool, who at his peak only excelled at spending daddy’s money to buy a building.

白宫显然对此毫无准备。唐纳德周围都是白痴、腐败分子和应声虫。他唯一的商业经验就是如何宣布破产和逃税。
中国不只是在嘲笑,他们也有了一个真实的、经过验证的攻击美国经济的理由。
我们的保卫者是一个老糊涂,在他的巅峰时期,他也只是擅长花爸爸的钱去买下一栋建筑。

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[–]fitzroy95 8 points
based on past experience, short term pain would make them find someone to blame and then lash out at and start a new shooting war against them. In this case, China (?).
Their stupid decisions of that type have a very long (and consistent) history.

根据过去的经验,短期的痛苦会让他们找一个人来指责,然后进行猛烈抨击,并开始一场新的针对他们的战争。在这种情况下,对象是中国吗?
他们愚蠢的决定有着悠久和一贯的历史。

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[–]IBuildBusinesses 8 points
What happens if China retaliates by cutting back the amount of US treasury bonds they continue to buy? When the US runs a deficit the money they borrow comes from selling bonds and China has, iirc, been the biggest buyer for years. Who keeps lending money to the US when China stops? The other countries could never pick up enough of the slack. If China stopped buying US debt all together the global financial system would collapse.

如果中国通过削减他们继续购买的美国国债的数量来进行报复,会发生什么?当美国出现赤字时,他们借入的资金来自于出售的债券,而中国则是多年来最大的买家。当中国停止买入时,谁会继续借钱给美国?其他国家永远无法弥补这一缺口。如果中国停止购买美国国债,全球金融体系将崩溃。

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[–]dancingferret 5 points
Not likely. The Chinese government is the largest single buyer for T-bonds, but they only represent a tiny fraction of the total. Them cutting off purchases would spook the market a bit but it would hardly be a drop in the bucket. The demand for US debt is absolutely insatiable.

不太可能。中国政府虽然是美国国债的最大单一买家,但它只占总量的很小一部分。它减少购买将会使市场感受到恐慌,但也只不过是沧海一粟。市场对美国债务的需求是绝对无法满足的。

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[–]IBuildBusinesses 2 points
Yeah, you are right. I just found this http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt .
It looks China is the biggest holder of debt but only slightly ahead of Japan. But in both China and Japan each only have a little under 1/6 of the total US debt. Given China and Japan together hold 1/3 of the US debt it's perhaps a bit of a saving grace that they hate each other as the two of them together could send ripples.

是的,你说的是对的。我刚刚发现了这个材料
看起来中国是最大的债务持有者,但也只是略高于日本。但中国和日本各自所持有的美国债务总额分别低于美国债务总额的六分之一。鉴于中国和日本总共持有美国三分之一的债务,唯一令人欣喜的地方或许就是它们是彼此憎恨的,因为它们联合在一起或许会造成一定的影响。

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[–]eBelieveCalifornia [score hidden]
All foreign entities own about 30% of the total debt. China and Japan hold about 1/6th of that 30%.

所有的外国实体总共持有约30%的美国总债务。中国和日本占这30%的六分之一。

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[–]SanpakuLouisiana 2 points 11  

When QE amounts to becoming the biggest player in the market (Fed holdings stand at $2.4 T, China's are at $1.17 T), and there's no sign of repudiation of future QE at the Fed, yes.

当量化宽松成为市场上的主角时(美联储持有的资产为2.4万亿美元,中国的债券持有量为1.17万亿美元),而且没有迹象表明美联储会对未来的量化宽松政策持否定态度。

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[–]Tylertooo 7 points
I think in a trade war, the winner is the one who gets hurts less. In this case, that would be China.

我认为在一场贸易战中,胜利者是那些受到伤害更少的人。在这种情况下,那就是中国。

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[–]tat3179 [score hidden]
China will hurt more, not less. But the difference is China could also take more pain. Their people remembered worse. And a vast majority of them are disciplined enough to stand behind *.
The US however, particularly their farmers, cried like a bitch before the trade war even properly commenced.

中国将会受到更多的伤害,而不是更少。但不同之处是,中国也能够承受更多的痛苦。它的人民还记得更糟糕的情况。他们中的绝大多数都训练有素,能够支持中国领导人。
然而,美国,尤其是它的农民,在贸易战争开始前就像个母狗一样哭了起来。

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[–]Tylertooo [score hidden]
I'm not doubting what you say, just trying to understand: what makes you say the Chinese will hurt more?

我不怀疑你说的话,我只是没有理解:是什么让你认为中国人将会受到更多的伤害?

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[–]tat3179 [score hidden]
Because China still exports more to the US than vice versa thus are more reliant to the US market.

因为中国对美国的出口仍高于美国对中国的出口,因此中国更依赖于美国市场。

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[–]staticchange -2 points
How do you figure? Trump is a moron, but we do have a fairly large trade deficit with China. If we put tariffs on every product they sell us and they did the same, we would win easily.
This will hurt everyone obviously, but China will be worse off.

你怎么算的?特朗普是个傻瓜,但我们对中国的贸易逆差的确相当大。如果我们对他们卖给我们的每一种产品都征收关税,他们也会这样做,我们会很容易获胜。这显然会伤害到所有人,但中国的情况将会更糟。

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[–]staticchange 4 points
I'll agree with that, the US will lose a trade war because we don't have the stomach for it.
Our politicians face public pressure over the fallout, and China's do not, which already leaves us at a disadvantage. But the GOP is particularly vulnerable now with midterms approaching.

我同意这一点,美国将输掉一场贸易战,因为我们没有忍耐这场战争的能力。
我们的政客们面临着公众对这种后果的压力,而中国则没有,这已经让我们处于不利地位了。但是,随着中期选举的临近,共和党尤其容易受到攻击。

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[–]DORITO-MUSSOLINI 11 points
China is a command economy. If they buy no US soybeans for a year that inconveniences them but really hurts our Midwest.
But China can say "hey, all you farmers over there on 20,000,000 acres, next Spring you are planting soybeans!" And they will. And China will be good again after one growing season.
The American trump-humping farmers? Not so much...

中国是一个命令型经济体。如果他们一年不买美国大豆,这对他们来说只是造成了一些不方便,但却真的伤害到了我们的中西部地区。
但是中国可以下令:“嘿,你们所有的农民明年春天要在2000万英亩的土地上种植大豆!”他们会照做的。在经历一个种植季节之后,中国将会恢复健康。
而美国那些支持特朗普的农民呢?那就不尽如人意了

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[–]420everytime [score hidden]
But China can say "hey, all you farmers over there on 20,000,000 acres, next Spring you are planting soybeans!"
Africa is now China's farm. These tariffs probably have a positive effect on kenya.

但是中国可以下令:“嘿,你们所有的农民明年春天要在2000万英亩的土地上种植大豆!”
非洲现在是中国的农场。这些关税可能对肯尼亚产生积极影响。

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[–]staticchange 2 points
Your stated example isn't really the right perspective. Why does China need soybeans? If they have 20 million acres of farmland, what is it producing now? If they switch to soybeans, will those farmers know how to grow that? Is it the right climate for it? How long will it take them to become as efficient growing soybeans as they were growing rice or whatever else before? How will growing soybeans at the expense of something else help them feed their population?
You can't compare this stuff in a vacuum.

你举的例子的角度是不正确的。为什么中国需要大豆?如果他们有2000万英亩的农田,那么这些农田现在生产的是什么呢?如果他们转而种植大豆,这些农民会知道如何种植大豆吗?气候适合吗?他们要花多长时间才能像种植水稻或其他任何东西一样,成为大豆的高效种植者呢?以牺牲其他作物为代价来种植大豆能够帮助他们养活自己的人口吗?你不能凭空比较这些东西。

The facts are that China needs to export to us much more than we need to export to them, because they export many times more goods to us than the reverse. If all trade stopped, millions of Chinese would be forced into extreme poverty and possibly starve after being laid off. Their lack of soybeans would be their least concern, these people couldn't afford to buy them anyway.

事实是,中国需要向我们出口更多的东西,而不是我们需要向它出口更多的东西,因为它们向我们出口的商品比反过来要多出很多倍。如果所有的贸易都停止了,数以百万计的中国人将被迫陷入极度贫困的境地,并可能在被解雇后挨饿。他们缺乏大豆将是他们最不关心的一个问题,因为这些人无论如何都买不起。

Millions of americans would have to pay twice as much for clothes and consumer goods (lots of these come from India, Taiwan, and other countries too). I'm sure many americans would struggle, and globally we would enter another recession due to the shock from all of the jobs that would be lost, but the scale of the damage done to america won't really be comparable to what happens in china.

数以百万计的美国人将不得不为服装和消费品支付双倍的费用(其中很多来自印度、台湾地区和其他国家)。我相信许多美国人会难受一阵子,而在全球范围内,由于所有可能丢失的工作带来的冲击,我们将会步入另一场衰退,但对美国造成的损害程度将无法与在中国发生的情况相提并论。

The major advantage china has is political power, china doesn't care what it's citizens think and if millions of them suffer there is nothing they can do about it anyway. Trump would be removed from office long before any of the scenarios discussed here play out, and china will 'win' the trade war, simply through political pressure.

中国拥有的主要优势是政治权力,中国不关心公民的想法,如果数百万人遭受苦难,他们也无能为力。在这里讨论的任何一种情况中,特朗普都将被赶下台,而中国则将通过政治压力“赢得”贸易战争。

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[–]staticchange [score hidden]
Why does China have millions of acres of farmland and farmers to work it just sitting around? Why do they buy our soybeans with such untapped resources at hand? Charity?

为什么中国会拥有数百万英亩的空闲的农田和农民?为什么他们要无视这些未开发的资源而来购买我们的大豆呢?它是慈善机构吗?

American companies would have shifted their suppliers to other countries within a year as well. Prices may not be as low, but we have the advantage of being the consumer. India, Taiwan, the Philippines, Africa, they all want that money, it's not as though we have to make tennis shoes and shirts in China.

美国公司也会在一年内将他们的供应商转移到其他国家。价格可能没有那么低,但我们有作为消费者的优势。印度,台湾地区,菲律宾,非洲,它们都想要获得那笔钱,这意味着我们不一定要在中国生产网球鞋和衬衫。

Some goods, like electronics, may take some investment to move, but if they do move they will likely never return for the same reason. Again, China has much more to lose than the US does. It's just numbers, we import almost three times as much stuff from China as we export.

有些商品,比如电子产品,可能会需要一些投资来转移生产地,但一旦真的迁移了,它们可能永远也不会因为同样的原因而返回中国生产了。再一次地,中国的损失要比美国要大得多。说一组数据吧,我们从中国进口的东西几乎是我们出口的三倍。

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[–]r1chard3 3 points
Chinese politicians don't have to worry about elections. They're also very adept at whipping up their populations. Remember a couple years ago they had their people setting Japanese cars on fire over a rock out in the ocean?

中国的政客们不必担心选举问题。他们也非常善于煽动他们的民众。还记得几年前,他们的人因为海上的一块礁石焚烧日本车吗?

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[–]staticchange 2 points
I agree, but if China wins the trade war it will be through a return to status quo. The guy I was replying to said it would be whoever is hurt less, but the only thing likely to be bruised in the US when all is said and done is Trump's ego.
China doesn't really have any hope in inflicting greater financial damage on the US in a trade war, they can't win that way. Trump won't win that way because he has too much political pressure.

我同意,但如果中国赢得贸易战,那将是回归常态。我回应的那个人说,无论谁受到的伤害更小,但在美国,当所有这一切都发生的时候,唯一可能会受到伤害的是特朗普的自负。
在贸易战争中,中国几乎不可能对美国造成更大的经济损失,他们不可能以这种方式获胜。特朗普不会以这种方式获胜,因为他有着太多的政治压力。

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[–]Stopjuststop3424 [score hidden]
I'd disagree. If China switches sources for say soy beans, or grows their own, then even after the trade war is over, those exports from the US never recover. Even when the tarriff are gone, China will likely continue to import far less from the US going forward. This has the potential to destroy American farms in the long run.

我不同意。如果中国更换大豆的来源地,或者自己种植大豆,那么即使在贸易战争结束后,美国的出口也永远不会恢复。即使是在关税消失的情况下,中国继续从美国进口的商品很困难也会少很多。从长远来看,这有可能摧毁美国的农场。

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[–]staticchange [score hidden
I mean, sure. But if we start manufacturing iPhones in india due to the trade war, China will have difficulty regaining that business also. And as I have maintained all along, they have so much more business to lose.
I don't know why people think China is so invulnerable. This article is as much Chinese propaganda as Fox News is GOP propaganda. Reddit fellates one, and hates the other. Both are worthy of skepticism.

我的意思是,当然是这样的。但如果我们因为贸易战争开始在印度生产苹果手机,中国也将难以恢复这一业务。就像我一直坚持的那样,他们还有更多的生意要做。
我不知道为什么人们认为中国是如此的坚不可摧。这篇文章和福克斯新闻一样,都是中国的政治宣传。Reddit迎合一个,厌弃另一个。两者都值得怀疑。



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 楼主| 发表于 2018-4-15 11:59 | 显示全部楼层
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[–]mitom2 1 point
China would not do such a thing. they simply would stop delivering to the US alltogether. after a few weeks, the US economy would be down. Congress would make a law that removes the ability to start a trade war from the POTUS. problems solved.

中国不会做这样的事。他们只是会停止向美国提供服务。几周后,美国经济将会下滑。国会将制定一项法律,取消总统发起贸易战的权力。问题解决了。

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[–]staticchange 1 point
We're both talking theoretically. It would devastate China's economy to stop selling goods to the US. All I'm saying is such a move would hurt the US less overall.
I agree it won't happen, the GOP would fold to political pressure before we reach that point.

我们都是从理论上进行讨论。停止向美国销售商品将摧毁中国经济。我想说的是,这样的举动会对美国整体上造成的伤害是比较少的。
我同意这一幕不会发生,在我们达到这一地步之前,共和党将会屈服于政治压力。

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[–]funkymunniez [score hidden]
Best estimates right now say our trade relationship with China if cut completely is 3% of their gdp. They do a ton of manufacturing for us. We'd probably be worse off.

目前最好的估计是,如果削减得一干二净,我们与中国的贸易关系相当于其国内生产总值的3%。他们为我们完成了大量的制造工作。我们的情况可能会更糟。

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[–]staticchange [score hidden]
https://ustr.gov/countries-regio ... ples-republic-china
US imported 478.8 billion from China in 2016, and exported 169.8 billion.
US GDP is 18.57 trillion, China's GDP is 11.2 trillion.
If we're going to talk numbers, there is no way any of that is in China's favor if trade stopped completely.

2016年,美国从中国进口了4788亿美元的商品,出口了1698亿美元。
美国的国内生产总值是18.57万亿美元,中国的国内生产总值是11.2万亿美元。
如果我们要讨论这些数字,如果贸易完全停止,那情况就不可能对中国有利。

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[–]Stopjuststop3424 [score hidden]
How much difference does it make when you consider how much of that 478 billion is US companies importing their own products that they manufacture in China? Imagine if China blocked all of Trump and co's own products from being exported and they could only sell within China.

当你考虑到在4780亿美元的商品中有多少是美国公司从中国进口的他们自己的产品时,这有多大的差别呢?想象一下,如果中国阻止特朗普和他的所有产品出口,它们就只能在中国境内销售了。

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[–]staticchange [score hidden]
I mean sure, but those factories would have huge layoffs, millions of people would lose their work.
In the US, some people might be laid off, and the cost of consumer goods would likely spike dramatically, but China is not the only country we buy these things from, and they can be built elsewhere. China can't sell the goods you mention elsewhere without violating copywrites, which we know they don't care about but all the big western markets for these goods won't allow it.

我的意思是肯定的,但是那些工厂会有大规模的裁员,数百万人会失去工作。在美国,一些人可能会被解雇,消费品的价格可能会大幅上涨,但中国并不是我们购买这些东西的唯一国家,而且它们可以在其他地方被制造。中国无法在不违反知识产权的情况下在其他地方把你所提到的这些商品卖出去,我们知道他们并不关心知识产权,但是对这些商品来说,所有的西方市场都不允许这样做。

Bottom line is that trade is vital between the two countries, but to say China holds the upper hand financially or that it's a close draw is dishonest. We buy a lot of stuff from China, and they don't buy nearly as much from us. Of course things are more complicated on this scale, but the consumer always holds the advantage. Lots of people want our money, and there are other countries with similarly low standards of living, low costs, negligible worker rights, and massive overpopulation.

结果就是,贸易对两国都是至关重要的,但如果说中国在经济上占了上风,或者说会达成一场势均力敌的平局,那就是不诚实的。我们从中国买了很多东西,他们买的东西也不像我们买的那么多。当然,在这个规模上,事情要复杂得多,但消费者总是占有优势的。很多人想要赚我们的钱,总有其他一些生活水平低、成本低、忽视工人权利和人口过剩的国家。

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[–]funkymunniez [score hidden] Our trade relationship with China is 3% of their gdp and they're currently setting up Africa to be what they are to us. With an more authoritarian government they would crush us, especially since trump has no God damn business navigating such a foreign policy action.

我们与中国的贸易关系占他们国内生产总值的3%,他们目前正在把非洲建设成为一个过去对我们而言的中国。凭借一个更加专制的政府,他们就会把我们压垮,特别是因为特朗普在外交政策上完全是横冲直撞。

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[–]tat3179 [score hidden]
I will not comment on whether the US should go into a trade war with China based on its current grievances against it. However, it seemed that the US is entering into the battlefield really unprepared and totally have no clue about the obxtives for the war.

我不愿评论美国是否应该基于当前对中国的不满而与中国爆发贸易战。然而,似乎美国正在进入战场,并且毫无准备,完全不知道战争的目的是什么。

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[–]A_CountryBoy_Knows [score hidden]
Yet we have have all the money. Who is china going to sell to?

然而,我们拥有着所有的资金。中国将向谁出售商品?

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[–]Timbershoe [score hidden]
No. The US is in record breaking debt:
http://www.usdebtclock.org
And the largest owner of that debt is China. Companies have wealth in America, America itself is in the hole. Trump is digging us deeper.
As to who to sell to? The rest of Asia, Russia, Canada, Europe, South America, Australia.

不。美国的债务达到了创纪录的水平:
http://www.usdebtclock
该债务的最大拥有者是中国。在美国,是各大公司拥有财富,美国本身则深陷困境当中。特朗普正在给我们挖更深的坑。
至于中国的商品卖给谁呢?买给亚洲其他国家、俄罗斯、加拿大、欧洲、南美和澳大利亚。

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[–]Stopjuststop3424 [score hidden]
No, the question is where are US companies who manufacture in China going to sell to? What happens to Apple if a few million iPhones, that Apple has already paid for, can't leave China?

不,问题是,在中国生产产品的美国公司会往哪里销售它们的产品?如果苹果公司已经花钱制造了几百万部苹果手机,而这些手机无法离开中国,要怎么办呢?

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[–]DrNoPantsNevada 1 point
It’s a weird day when Chinese state media is more credible than the president of the United States

当中国的官方媒体比美国总统更可信时,真是太奇怪了

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[–]xdppthrowaway9001x 0 points
It’s a weird day when Chinese state media is more credible than the president of the United States
Are you joking? Chinese state media is almost North Korea-tier when it comes to propaganda. And if you think Trump's administration has a lot of yes-men, you haven't seen anything compared to the Chinese government. There's no convenient bill of rights and civil liberties there. People are murdered for criticizing the party or the agenda all of the time. Such an environment does not enable factual reporting, and in fact expressively prohibits it.

“当中国的官方媒体比美国总统更可信时,真是太奇怪了”
你是在开玩笑吗?中国的官方媒体在政治宣传方面几乎和朝鲜一模一样。如果你认为特朗普的政府有很多“应声虫”,那么与中国政府相比,你简直是一无所知。那里没有权利和公民自由法案。人们因为批评政党或议程而被谋杀。这样的环境是无法进行事实性报道的,事实上,它也不允许这么做。

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[–]Spacedman-Spliff 4 points
Hope you simply forgot the /s.
Otherwise, I hope you realize China is far more capitalist than Americans seem to think.

希望你只是忘记了。
否则,我希望你意识到,中国远比美国人想象的更加资本主义。

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[–]dancingferret 2 points
It would boost interest rates for a bit, but otherwise all it would do is relieve the Chinese government of one of its most reliable and stable assets.

它将略微抬高利率,但除此之外,它所能做的就是减少中国政府最可靠、最稳定的资产之一。

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[–]reallyfasteddie [score hidden]
I feel that the Chinese are pretty astute when it comes to matters of money. Trump I feel is not. This is like a poker game and people have figured out that Trump is the sucker at the table with a lot of money. I the next two years there will be many people itching to get it. Russia, China, North Korea, etc..

我觉得中国人在钱的问题上是相当精明的。特朗普则不然。这就像一场扑克游戏,人们已经发现,特朗普是一个有很多钱的人。在接下来的两年里,会有很多人渴望得到它。俄罗斯、中国、北朝鲜,等等。

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[–]justsayin2u -2 points
If China keeps playing with fire, the U.S. would be well within its rights to revoke China’s MFN trade status.
To those who assume China could do the same, I’ll simply point out that they already have with their longstanding mercantilism. The U.S. has far less to lose than China does by subjecting it to a taste of its own trade fraud and economic marginalization.

如果中国继续玩火,美国将完全有权取消中国的贸易最惠国地位。对于那些认为中国也能做到这一点的人来说,我只会指出,他们已经实行了很长一段时间的重商主义。与中国相比,美国的损失要小得多,因为它让中国尝到了自己的贸易欺诈和经济边缘化行为的滋味。

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[–]Timbershoe 6 points
China only restarted trade in the 1970’s. That’s only 40 years ago.
I’m not sure that classes as longstanding mercantilism.
But yes, they practice neomercantilism. As does the US.
I don’t think anyone sensible would say that the US can’t win a trade war, and there are steps that could be taken to up the odds of wining, but China has three advantages.

中国在20世纪70年代才重新开始进行对外贸易。那是40年前的事了。
我不确定这可以被归类为长期的重商主义。
但是,是的,他们践行的是新重商主义。美国也是如此。
我不认为任何明智的人会说出美国无法赢得一场贸易战的话,而且有一些措施是可以提高获胜的几率的,但中国拥有三个优势:

1 - They have taken the first steps, they have a plan and they are forming economic allies in Russia and Canada to limit impacts on the Chinese economy.

2 - They are targeting trumps base, specifically, to harm the heartlands and undermine support for a trade war. Cutting the heart out of the fight.

3 - China isn’t a democracy. It doesn’t matter what the population thinks about a trade war, or what the impacts are to the individual.

1、他们已经迈出了第一步,他们拥有一个计划,他们正在和俄罗斯和加拿大结成经济同盟,以限制对中国经济造成的影响。
2、他们的目标是特朗普的执政基础,特别是要伤害到他的核心地带,并削弱对贸易战的支持力度。这么做就是直捣黄龙。
3、中国不是一个民主国家。人们对贸易战的看法或者对个人的影响是无关紧要的。

And pitted against those three advantages? Donald J Trump, 5 times failed businessman who has zero economic experience. A man under fire daily. A man about to loose the house in the midterms. A con man. A man who’s pushed all his advisors away, valuing his ego over knowledge.

与这三个优势相抗衡?唐纳德·J. 特朗普,一个失败五次的商人,一个在经济领域的经验为零的人。他是一个每天都经受猛烈抨击的人。一个会在中期选举之后离开白宫的人。一个骗子。一个把他所有的顾问都推到一边去,看重自己的自负而非知识的人。

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[–]buttergun 121 points
Haha. Joke's on you, China. Americans don't remember shit. Whatever damage they inflict on the American economy will be forgotten in 6 years or fewer.

哈哈。中国,你就是个笑话。美国人不会记得你这坨屎的。无论他们对美国经济造成何种损害,都将在6年或更短的时间内被遗忘掉。

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[–]spread_thin 7 points
Exactly. If China wants things to change, they need to straight-up starve the population of red states until they simply don't have the population to elect another Trump.

完全正确。如果中国想要改变现状,他们需要直接让红州(共和党选区)的人口挨饿,直到他们没有足够的人口来选举出另一个特朗普。

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[–]MediumBaller 3 points
Move.
Edit: Your argument is so annoyingly stupid it really irritates me. Not taking drastic actions to save us from another Trump is and has harmed far more people than China fucking with imports ever could. Oh, and TRUMP started the shit.

行动吧。
编辑:你的观点太愚蠢了,真让我恼火。不采取激烈的行动来将我们从另一个特朗普手中拯救出来,受到伤害的美国人将会比受到伤害的中国人更多。哦,特朗普开始捣乱了。

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[–]xdppthrowaway9001x 1 point
Exactly. If China wants things to change,
They need to stop with the billions of dollars of intellectual property theft and unfair economic practices they engage in. Trump is stupid, but China is not really in a position to lecture him. Obama wanted to do something about this too, but his plan was to do it with the TPP.

完全正确。如果中国希望事情发生变化,他们需要停止盗窃数十亿美元的知识产权的行为和不公平的经济行为。特朗普是愚蠢的,但中国实际上并没有资格对他说教什么。奥巴马也想做点什么,但他的计划是对跨太平洋伙伴关系协议开刀。

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[–]GabeDef 1 point
It’s such a no win pissing contest for both sides. China needs the US’ consumerism and this consumerism need China’s cheap goods. This could be a hard lesson for both.

对双方来说,这都是一场没有胜算的比赛。中国需要美国的消费主义,而这种消费主义则需要中国的廉价商品。这对双方来说都是一个惨痛的教训。
   
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[–]blackops219 0 points
Not anymore. Even though US is still a valuable market for them Chinese, China has the largest population and it's slowly (fast actually) into the largest consumer market; more people are moving from poverty into the middle class. Eventually, it'll be the US companies begging for even a piece of that huge market.

再也不会了。尽管我们对中国人来说仍然是一个有价值的市场,但中国拥有最大规模的人口,而且它正在缓慢地(事实上是快速地)成为规模最大的消费市场;越来越多的人从贫困者变为中产阶级。最终,美国企业甚至会为了获得这个巨大的市场中的一点点份额而苦苦哀求。

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[–]ExpiredDustyMuffin 1 point
We're already there for many industries. Just look at how pro-China most blockbusters are these days, or how Apple's stock price goes tumbling if there's even so much as a rumor their market share in China is dropping. They need Chinese consumers.

在很多行业,我们已经进入中国市场了。看看这些日子里,中国最受关注的大片是什么,或者说如果有传言苹果在中国的市场份额开始下跌,它的股价会如何下跌。它们需要中国消费者。

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[–]ninemiletree 55 points
Russia and China want to undermine US' power to allow their own geopolitical and economic growth
Russia sneaks an imbecile into the White House
Imbecile begins to enact damaging and meaningless economic and political policies including tariffs on China.
This allows the far more competent, ruthless, and driven administrations in China and Russia to enact far more effective retaliatory measures.
US suffers and is weakened far more than ever in its history because a few bigots and imbeciles thought a five-year-old with a four-year-old's solution to problems was a good idea.

俄罗斯和中国想要削弱美国的力量,让他们自己的地缘政治和经济实力获得增长
俄罗斯偷偷地将一个弱智塞进白宫
这个弱智开始实施破坏性的、毫无意义的经济和政治政策,包括对中国征收关税。
这使得中国和俄罗斯更有能力、更无情、更有动力的政府能够采取更有效的报复措施。
现在美国遭受的打击比以往任何时候都要严重得多,因为一些顽固分子和弱智认为一个五岁孩子和一个四岁孩子提出的解决问题的方法是一个好主意。

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[–]User767676 16 points
China isn’t reacting to tariffs. It was part of the plan all along with help from Russia. Trump voters still do not recognize this because of the ideological distraction and power grab games begin played by selfish powerful Republicans. If the right keeps fretting primarily about their guns (etc) it won’t be long before they can’t afford food, let alone buy guns.

中国没有对关税做出反应。在俄罗斯的帮助下,这是整个计划的一部分。特朗普的选民们仍然没有意识到这一点,这是由自私而强势的共和党人发起的意识形态的干扰和权力争夺游戏所导致的。如果右派一直在担心他们的枪支(等等),他们距离买不起食物就不远了,更不用说买枪了。

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[–]pingieking 5 points
Disagree. China has nothing to gain from a trade war with the USA. In fact, they've got even more to lose than the Americans because China's government probably can't survive a prolonged economic slump. Damaging trade relations with the world's largest economy is not a good way of trying to keep the world's largest population employed.

不同意你的观点。中国在与美国开打的贸易战不会获得任何好处。事实上,他们的损失比美国人还要多,因为中国政府很可能无法在长期的经济衰退中幸存下来。破坏与世界上最大的经济体之间的贸易关系并不是让世界上最大的人口获得就业的好办法。

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[–]ninemiletree 8 points
China has nothing to gain from a trade war with the USA
They do if the person driving the war on the American side is a crippling stupid fool and can be easily outmaneuvered by China and appeased by simple bribes.

“中国在与美国开打的贸易战不会获得任何好处。”
如果美国一方发动战争的人是一个非常愚蠢的傻瓜,能够很容易被中国打败,通过简单的贿赂得到安抚,那么中国就会获得好处。

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[–]xdppthrowaway9001x 1 point
Trump isn't the only one in his administration.
Also the Chinese government is full of bribes, corruptions, and murders. It's an authoritarian regime.

特朗普不是他政府中唯一的一个蠢货。
同时,中国政府中也充斥着贿赂、腐败和谋杀的行为。它是一个独裁政权。

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[–]dancingferret 3 points  
Nazi Germany and the Soviet unx worked that way as well, and they turned out to be ludicrously inefficient and incompetent, because people were promoted for loyalty and ideology first, competency second.
You can make the argument that the Trump Administration works that way as well, but it is supported by a nonpartisan civil service. China ironically, lacks that, even though in the past they invented that idea.

纳粹德国和苏联也是这样运作的,结果证明他们的效率低下且无能,因为人们首先因为忠诚和意识形态而得到提升,其次才是能力。
你可以认为特朗普政府也是这样运作的,但它得到了一个无党派的公务员系统的支持。具有讽刺意味的是,中国缺乏这种系统,尽管是他们在过去发明了这个想法。

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[–]QuerulousPanda 2 points
It's a risky game but all they need to do is hurt us long enough for us to roll over and do what they want. It was unthinkable before but likely now. The Chinese government and people are far more capable of weathering a storm than we are.
Especially because they don't even really need to hurt our population that much, they just need to ding the bottom line of a few rich folk.

这是一场冒险的游戏,但他们所需要做的就是在足够长的时间里伤害我们,从而让我们无法翻身,这样他们就可以为所欲为了。这在以前是不可想象的,但现在却很有可能发生。中国政府和中国人民比我们更有能力抵御风暴。
特别是因为他们甚至不需要伤害我们的人口,他们只需要知道一些富人的底线是什么。

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[–]PinkBubbleT 2 points
The Chinese government and people are far more capable of weathering a storm than we are.
The Chinese government can weather a storm because they can (mostly) ignore popular opinion. The people are still human and will suffer just as much as anyone else would.

“中国政府和中国人民比我们更有能力抵御风暴。”
中国政府可以经受住一场风暴,因为他们(在绝大多数情况下)可以无视民意。中国的人民仍然是人,他们将遭受和其他人一样的痛苦。

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[–]proggR 1 point
China's government probably can't survive a prolonged economic slump
You and I are looking at two completely different Chinese governments then. Power hasn't been this consolidated in China since Mao. Meanwhile America's government is holding together by a thread, and is ripe for revolt even without a trade war. Once food prices start to rise in the US throughout the summer, if this trade war is still not resolved I expect you'll see far more civil unrest in the US than in China.
They're also not the ones damaging trade relations with the US. Trump shot first.

“中国政府很可能无法在长期的经济衰退中幸存下来”
你和我现在看到的是两个完全不同的中国政府。自毛时代以来,中国的政治权力从来都没有这么巩固过。与此同时,美国政府的团结却危如累卵,即使没有贸易战争,反叛活动也会出现。一旦美国的食品价格在整个夏天开始上涨,如果这场贸易战还没有得到解决,我预计在美国会出现比中国更多的国内动乱。
中国也不是损害与美国的贸易关系的国家。是特朗普先开枪的。

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[–]clevername99 -1 points
China has a huge weapon in its arsenal that nobody has mentioned. They hold a shit ton of US debt, and are regular buyers of new US debt. They could mess with the capital markets in ways never imagined.

中国在其武器库中拥有一件无人提及的强大武器。它持有大量美国国债,并且是美国新债务的常规买家。他们可能以一种从未有人想过的方式扰乱资本市场。

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[–]ser_renely 2 points
It would hurt China to call in the debt, a lot.

这将会严重危及中国所持有债券的兑现。

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[–]rexmachina [score hidden]
You are just wrong. Russia and China are two distinct situations, this isn't the 1950s, calm the fuck down. China doesn't want to hurt the US economy because that would also harm China. Trump forced the issue.

你错了。俄罗斯和中国处于两个截然不同的情况中,这不是20世纪50年代,冷静下来。中国不想伤害美国经济,因为这也会损害中国的利益。是特朗普让这个问题出现的。

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[–]xdppthrowaway9001x 1 point
While I agree that they both want to undermine the US, China loses greatly in a trade war with the US.
Our economy is nearly twice they size as theirs, and they rely on US consumers for growth.

虽然我同意它们都想削弱美国,但中国在与美国的贸易战中损失巨大。我们的经济规模几乎是他们的两倍,而且他们依赖于美国消费者来获得增长。

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[–]coolbern[S] 60 points
Goodbye American exports to China. Even without other government action, the Chinese people get the message. Every good Chinese person will avoid all things American. And if China does take counter-measures, Americans, who are constitutionally incapable of ever admitting a mistake, or saying sorry, will get really mad. But what can the U.S. do? Stop buying Chinese goods? Make empty threats? Start a war? My hope is that when all else fails, people open their eyes and start dealing with the sorry mess this world is in, starting with hunger, poverty, disease, and climate change. There's enough work for us all to do.

再见了,美国对中国的出口。即使没有其他政府的行动,中国人民也能获得这样的讯息。每个优秀的中国人都会避开一切的美国货。如果中国真的采取了反制措施,天生就不会承认错误或者说对不起的美国人会变得非常疯狂。但美国能做些什么呢?停止购买中国产品吗?做出空洞的威胁吗?发动一场战争吗?我希望,当所有这些都失败的时候,人们睁开眼睛,开始处理这个世界所陷于其中的令人遗憾的混乱,就从饥饿、贫穷、疾病和气候变化开始吧。我们有许多工作要去做
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发表于 2018-4-15 19:17 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层
实际上贸易战还只是口水战,很可能打不起来,不过原油期货这个炮弹已经在持续的打击着美国,美国这些p民们的素质也就这样了,很高兴的看到,他们以为自己很聪明。
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 楼主| 发表于 2018-4-15 20:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 一丈青 于 2018-4-15 20:20 编辑

石油与铁矿石期货人民币结算后,中国除了买波音飞机还需要1些美金外(虽然美帝的大飞机能够被远程遥控,但中国不会制造,目前还只能买,这点与Windows软件一样,知道有后门,但只能先用着),中国将改变以外贸出口模式,变成人民币购买全球产品、资源、技术与服务模式同时各国需要人民币进口中国商品的模式!

美元将成为中国可有可无的纸张!
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